Aurora at the Canada/USA border on Wednesday, courtesy of SpaceWeather.com

At 4am on Wednesday morning, aurora was observed as far south as 49 degrees North due to a minor CME which occured on Sunday.

A massive X-class solar flare occured on Wednesday morning and is expected to arrive around 0640UT on Thursday.

If you have clear skies over the next few nights, look to the north and watch for aurora as you will be in for a treat. Photographs have already been posted to SpaceWeather.com so be sure and check them out.

Check out the Space Weather forecast page for more information. The best time to observe will be after 19:30 which is around astronomical twilight, depending on your latitude.

New video posted…

Watch this video on YouTube.

UPDATE

Storm is really kicking off now, a bit of a delayed start, but definitely have a look this Friday evening and if you have a camera, use it on a tripod to take 15-20 second ISO400 photographs which will show up aurora, even through thin cloud that you can’t see with the naked eye.

Be sure and check out the forecasts for cloud cover for your area to get the best chance of a clear spell.

Good luck.

SATURDAY

Another CME from sunspot Active Region 1429 is heading towards earth and could arrive as early as 11pm this evening. Be sure and keep checking the latest Kp Index for activity and if the sky is clear, take some time to look to the northern horizon for any green glow or curtain-like rays of light.

I have reorganised the Space Weather page and updated a few links to forecast pages. The latest addition and one that is proving to be very accurate is the Ovation Aurora Forecast which also predicts how far south the aurora can be observed.

Currently, the videos are all encoded in Adobe Flash so all PCs, Macs, and most Android phones can play them directly. I have included text links below each video so that non-flash users (iPhone and iPad) can hopefully play the videos direct from YouTube – YouTube should detect your OS and serve you html5.

The video forecast page is only displaying correctly on the full website, so if you find the video placeholders overlap, sized wrong, please scroll down to the bottom of the page and turn the mobile site off.

Click here for the Vidcasts.

Hope you enjoy this new page, be sure and let me know what you think in the comments below.

UPDATE

Sunspot 1402 erupted last night producing an M9 class solar flare, the highest scale before the large X class. The resulting coronal mass ejection is heading towards Earth and is expected after lunch time on Tuesday.

The time is only an estimate, the best way to check for solar activity is to visit the Space Weather page and check out the live forecasts and webcams from high latitudes. If it’s dark and clear, then get yourself outside to enjoy this natural fireworks display.

Recent sightings

On Sunday night, aurora was reported from all over northern British Isles. Be sure and follow @AurorawatchUk on Twitter for any possible sightings, keep checking the Space Weather page, and if you do see aurora, tweet about it by using the now familiar method of #aurora followed by your postcode BT5 followed by the “amount” 4/10 . You can view the aurora results here.

END OF UPDATE

If you have been following the Space Weather in the last few days, you will know of an M3 class coronal mass ejection that occurred on 19th January. The CME arrived on Sunday morning but it has been continuing to cause some beautiful aurorae over high to mid latitude locations, including northern UK.

The best way of observing aurora is to look for a clear northern horizon away from city light pollution, wrap up warm, lie back on a deckchair, and enjoy.

For more information, live aurora cams, and more, check out the Space Weather page.

Fireside

I want to wish all my visitors a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

WEATHER UPDATE

During Christmas day, hurricane force winds will sweep past the north of Scotland bringing severe conditions to exposed regions of the north. Another area of low pressure is developing in the Atlantic and will track up the western coasts from Tuesday evening and this looks to be just as windy as the current weather system. Please check the current weather warnings in the sidebar for more details for your area.

Satellite view of the UK and France

The severe storm that was previously expected for us has hit France hard, with nearly half a million without power and many people evacuated from flood prone areas due to the storm surge.

If you would like to report the snow in your location, the best way is via Twitter using the hashtag #uksnow in the message along with your postcode or geotagged location, the amount of snow falling out of 10 e.g. 5/10 and a description.

All of the twitter hashtags can be graphically displayed on the website below.

http://www.twitwx.co.uk/

The Met. Office also have a reporting website W.O.W.

http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

Enjoy

The later forecast of high winds on Thursday/Friday is now looking less likely and the weather system could just skirt the south of England without actually making landfall which would give treacherous conditions for the English Channel and France. This does have a particular ring of de-ja vu 1987 so it’s best to keep checking the forecast as the weather models develop a more accurate picture during the week.

END OF UPDATE

There is some very severe weather incoming for the British Isles this week, beginning with high violent storm force winds hitting the north and west during Tuesday afternoon and passing NE through Scotland during Tuesday night.

Wednesday morning could see a weak weather system pass through the south of Ireland with winds touching 50 knots and reaching southern Wales by the afternoon.

The most severe wind and rain is to come on Thursday afternoon/evening and this will be more widespread with forecasts currently looking at 70 knot mean wind speeds with gusts of 90+ knots travelling northeast through Ireland and Cornwall. Ireland, the Irish Sea, Wales, the Midlands, the North of England and southern Scotland are looking at the very worst storms lasting through until Friday evening.

Watch this video on YouTube.

Current Visual Satellite

This low pressure system is bringing massive waves to the north west and phenomenal winds of 65knots+ with gusts possibly close to 90knots. The current shipping forecast is as follows:

ROCKALL
SOUTH VEERING WEST STORM 10 TO HURRICANE FORCE 12,
DECREASING 7 TO SEVERE GALE 9.

FAEROES
SOUTH 6 TO GALE 8 VEERING SOUTHWEST STORM 10 TO HURRICANE
FORCE 12, VEERING WEST 8 TO 10 LATER.

It’s not very often you see hurricane force 12 on the forecast and to top it off, wave heights are not high or very high, but  PHENOMENAL ! Best to check out the NOAA wave buoy data and be thankful you aren’t out fishing in those conditions.

Thankfully the very worst of the winds will be offshore but exposed locations will be treacherous.

Over the next 48 hours a further double depression from the western Atlantic is set to move in to northern areas and this will bring even more severe, westerly winds which will effect Northern Ireland and Scotland during Saturday night and into Sunday. There is a chance that Sunday morning Scotland could see some wintry weather too so be prepared.

Autumn Leaves

The autumnal weather is well and truly upon us and we are looking forward now to when the first hard frost and colder weather will arrive. Over the next couple of weeks, an anticyclone will be firmly in control bringing warmer than average temperatures with south or south westerly winds. If at some point, the high pressure over mainland Europe were to swing south, we could see temperatures changing rapidly to a much colder airflow, come December.

PREPARATION
The first, widespread, hard frost is yet to hit the British Isles so now is the time to prepare for the winter. Whether you have a car, caravan, yacht or log cabin, lagging water pipes, checking anti-freeze levels, or “winterizing” your boat or caravan is a necessity to prevent harmful frost damage. Home heating systems should be serviced and have an anti-corrosion additive added to the radiator system. If possible, fresh water systems in caravans and boats should be drained if not in use and antifreeze added (at recommended mixture levels) to prevent freezing. Garden machinery, outboard motors or any engine not in use should have fuel stabiliser added to prevent gumming, and fogging oil used to prevent internal corrosion over the winter months.

FORECASTS
For long range forecasts, I have just added NetWeather.tv to the general weather page which provides monthly and even longer range outlooks as well as weekly updates by Michael Fish MBE, so this is well worth checking out. Unfortunately, Metcheck is still having huge issues with their forecasting system but there are a number of excellent alternatives.

• Meteoblue is a Swiss run website that presents wonderful meteograms and 3hourly radar prediction maps so you can see exactly when rain is heading your way.
• The Norwegian Met. Office provide excellent forecasts with great looking meteograms and hourly forecasts for your location.
• For PC use only, WeatherSpark is for the technically minded giving multiple forecasting models presented in graph form to get you right at the data.

An Indian Summer can to occur from late September to mid November and is so named when temperatures reach above 21°C with clear, sunny weather.

For the west of the British Isles, a low pressure system will be trying to push in, bringing strong southerly winds and the chance of showers throughout the week, though the rain should stay away until early Saturday for most of the west of Ireland and later in the day for the east of Ireland.

When the wind eventually changes to the north, you can expect rain wherever you live; for Ireland this will be Saturday but for eastern UK this could be as late as Monday evening, so a good weekend is likely.

Please do take care if you are out in the Sun, wearing an appropriate long sleeved shirt and sun factor sun cream. The strong southerlies in the west of the UK will make it feel cooler but burning will be just as quick.

UPDATE : Rain is now expected to move in to the west of Ireland on Friday morning but the blocking high pressure from the south east will mean that the Midlands, south and east will continue to enjoy the warm weather throughout Sunday.

Hurricane Katia view from the ISS

Hurricane Katia has been about for a couple of weeks now, simmering in the Central Atlantic Ocean, but it is now heading across the Atlantic and will be with us by Sunday night for western areas. Currently another low pressure system is in charge bringing heavy showers and gusts up to 45mph for some western parts. When Katia arrives it will combine with this current weather system and bring some very severe wet and windy weather.

Katia will track across the north of Ireland and into Scotland with forecasts showing sustained wind speed of 60mph and gusts up to 80mph. Northern Ireland, the western Isles, and Hebrides of Scotland will be worst affected, with gusty winds and rain continuing into Tuesday evening.

If you do live in an exposed location, I would advise that you take in all garden tables, chairs, gazebos, trampolines, small flower pots, and if you own a caravan/boat, please do check that all items are stowed safely and securely.

Now let’s sit back and enjoy the ride…

Watch the current weather conditions on the Weather Underground and XC Weather. For coastal locations, check out NOAA buoy data and Magic Seaweed which both show wave swell and wind speeds.